p-value

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Note

• ==this is not a probability of either of hypotheses==
• it is a probability of seeing such or more extreme value in case of nul-hypothesis is true
• in AB test it is compared against defined ahead significance $\alpha$
  • p-value < significance: evidence AGAINST the null-hypothesis
  • p-value > significance: does NOT GIVE evidence for the null-hypothesis

IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO CONFIRM the null hypothesis

Why do we use p value of 0.05?

Because Ronald Fisher told us so:

Fisher suggests that researchers might consider a p value of 0.05 as a handy guide: “It is convenient to take this point as a limit in judging whether a deviation ought to be considered significant or not.” Pursue results with p values below that threshold, he advises, and do not spend time on results that fall above…

Resources

• Наталья Тоганова | Что такое p-value? Достаточно ли одного показателя? - YouTube
• karpov courses

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